bapifar01: The great week for Obama is a rotten no-good two weeks for the GOP

Let's go to the video:

Partial list of events favoring Obama since April 27, 2011:

? Released long form birth certificate
? Killed Osama bin Laden
? Destroyed Trump, seriously damaged birther movement
? Polls spiked
? Gas prices peaked
? Better than expected job numbers, even if still weak
? NY 26 unexpectedly strong for Democrats
? Narrative changed (inoculated against being the new Jimmy Carter)
? Pundits focusing on weak GOP field
? Tea party/Wall Street civil war over debt limits
? Rifts appear as Ryan's Medicare disaster sink in
? Mitt Romney's health care speech is less than well received
? Mike Huckabee won't run in 2012 (joining Haley Barbour)

On April 27, Barack Obama released his long form birth certificate. While a bit puzzling at the time, it was followed by the White House Correspondents Dinner on April 30, wherein, as Stephen Colbert observed, ?Seth Meyers did a great job at the Correspondents? Dinner, but I gotta say, this weekend Barack Obama really killed.?

iconic photo of a Democrat rewriting the narrative on strength

Just who and what he killed (besides Donald Trump's Presidential aspirations) was revealed the next day in a rare Sunday late night address to the nation, followed almost immediately by speculation about the size of Obama's poll spike, and how long it would or wouldn't last. It was bound not to last; Gallup says most of the spike was from Republicans who wouldn't vote for Obama anyway, not Democrats who already like him.

the real Mission Accomplished

But missing from the debate about poll numbers alone is a change in dynamics and narrative that has yet to fully play out. We see it in the frantic push from Bush staffers to claim credit for bin Laden's death, as well as their airwaves saturation of the defense of torture in order to try and preserve what's left of their legacy.

We also see it in pictures. Check the picture of that Mission Accomplished Bush-era speech, along with the other pics posted in this piece. If there ever were proof that a picture is worth a thousand words, you're looking at it. The Situation Room photo was everywhere, but via email and social media, so are the tongue in cheek ones.

What people are REALLY thinking

And they all make the same point: Obama (a Democrat) delivers where Bush (a Republican) couldn't. Strength and results on issues that matter, without the bombast and without the bumper sticker slogans (although Obama got Osama ain't bad.) That shakes the Republicans to their tea party roots.

Not only that, the point about strength and the ubiquity of those pictures reinforce the idea that while the Republicans are going small over issues like birth certificates, anti-immigration fervor and social issues, the grown-up in the race is leading by example and accomplishment. Check out the Politico video at the top: weak Republican field, strong Democratic President. This is the week for Obama that set that narrative.

There's an indirect halo effect as well, seen in Gallup's polling on economic confidence and approval of Congress. How long those will last remains to be seen, but they are less overtly partisan measurements than the President's job approval.

And what about news on Obama's opposition? Well, when is the last time a politician so thoroughly destroyed an opponent in such a short period of time to the point where there's no race any more? The annihilation of Donald Trump by Obama, starting with the release of his birth certificate, followed by the White House Correspondent's Dinner, with its live roast of the Donald while Obama was simultaneously involved in planning the capture or kill of bin Laden, was utter and complete. Tom Jensen/PPP chronicles the result:

Trump collapses
Donald Trump has had one of the quickest rises and falls in the history of Presidential politics. Last month we found him leading the Republican field with 26%. In the space of just four weeks he's dropped all the way down to 8%, putting him in a tie for fifth place with Ron Paul.

Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney are at the top of the GOP race with 19% and 18% respectively. Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin are further back at 13% and 12%, followed by Trump and Paul at 8%, Michele Bachmann at 7%, and Tim Pawlenty at 5%.

As Trump got more and more exposure over the last month Republicans didn't just decide they weren't interested in having him as their nominee- they also decided they flat don't like him. Only 34% of GOP voters now have a favorable opinion of Trump to 53% who view him in a negative light.

How about everyone else? Just in the last few days we get this on putative front runner Mitt Romney (and still a likely choice for the nominee), as per Tom Jensen/PPP:

It's safe to say that when voting time comes around all of those voters will know about Romney's past and it will probably cost him some of his support- the question is just how much? Is health care going to be such a litmus test for Republican voters that all of these folks supporting Romney right now will really drop him when they find out what he did in Massachusetts, or will other factors that make him appealing end up outweighing his baggage on this issue? I don't know the answer, but if GOPers really do end up treating this as a make or break issue then this early polling suggests the door is closed for Romney with more than half of primary voters.

while a formidable opponent, Mike Huckabee, said no deal. Why would he have been formidable? Ben Smith:

"I think he has been an exemplary husband to his wife and an extraordinary father to his daughters," Huckabee said earlier this year. "Frankly, America needs a good role model like that."
There's a school of, particular, conservative Christian Republicanism that has no particular grudge against Obama. This shows up in opinion polls, belying the cliche that this is the most divisive moment of all time. Clinton was far more widely despised. As the Southern Baptist leader Richard Land told me last year, ?I would want to be free to attack the character of President Clinton ? but this guy, he gives every indication of being a decent guy."

Huckabee speaks, in part, for that part of the conservative movement. It's one of many reasons he's so anomalous inside the GOP right now ? along with his loathing for the Club for Growth and his lack of institutional ties.

Huck also was not above speaking for the birthers. And he had some huge obstacles as a candidate : poor organizational skills and poor history of fund-raising. Remember, this is the guy who in 2008, unlike Obama, could not take advantage of Iowa and use it as a stepping stone to the nomination. But he's very personable and represents the social conservatives who, though they won't vote D, now don't have a top line candidate to follow. Pawlenty and Daniels will pick up some of the support, but not with the passion Huckabee would have engendered. But short-term, Romney benefits by not having a potent rival who was keen on skewering him every chance he got.

What about Newt? Well, Georgia Logothetis just outlined why there couldn't be a bigger contrast between Newt's 1994 media strategy (which boils down to "vote for me, I tweeted!") and the reality of Obama's spontaneous buzz.

Now, that's not to say the good times will last. The economy in the end will trump everything (God, it's nice to go back to using that word with a small 't' ? thank you, Mr. President!) But along with Romney's health problem (his plan, not his personal status), the two vignettes above about Trump and Huckabee illustrate the underlying dynamic for the GOP. He who can win the general can't win the GOP primary, and he who wins the primary will be in terrible shape for the general. Why? Two words: tea party. As a result of their loathing for mandates, the GOP nomination will boil down to Romney and not-Romney (Pawlenty and Daniels, plus the clown caucus sans Trump.)

And because of the tea party infighting that won't go away, coupled with a strong Democratic President (did I mention he got Osama?), the smart Republicans (Chris Christie, Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush and the other so-called white knights who could ride in and save the Republicans from their weak field and themselves) are going to sit this one out. Obama's strong week cements that decision in a way that is not likely to be undone, regardless of what Mitch Daniels decides to do.