The general election numbers out of South Carolina, published on Thursday by our polling pals at PPP, are the prime example of two trends that have defined this summer's understanding of the 2012 presidential campaign.
Specifically, these two points: 1) Barack Obama's numbers, at present, are pretty awful for a president seeking reelection; and 2) the GOP's field of contenders and pretenders, by and large, are in a shockingly bad position to do anything about it. In South Carolina, a traditionally red state, that means that Barack Obama would be, hard as it might be to believe, even money against three of the five leading GOP contenders.
Public Policy Polling. 8/25-8/28. South Carolina voters. MoE +/- 4.0%. (6/10 results):
Mitt Romney (R): 53 (50)
Barack Obama (D): 38 (41)Rick Perry (R): 49 (--)
Barack Obama (D): 41 (--)Newt Gingrich (R): 45 (44)
Barack Obama (D): 44 (46)Barack Obama (D): 45 (48)
Sarah Palin (R): 45 (43)Barack Obama (D): 44 (--)
Michele Bachmann (R): 44 (--)
Despite a summer that has seen the president take a noticeable hit in his job approvals, he still fights to a draw against the usual GOP doormats (Gingrich and Palin). More telling, perhaps: Obama fights to a draw with Michele Bachmann, who has had her worst polling week in the cycle.
Of course, this smattering of "good news" becomes irrelevant if Romney or Perry emerge as the GOP nominee. Both of these men hold leads that either reach or exceed the margin enjoyed by John McCain here in 2008. As is the case elsewhere, PPP provides additional ammunition for Mitt Romney to make an "electability" argument with GOP primary voters. While Perry isn't much of a danger to lose to Obama in South Carolina, the fact that his lead is half of what Romney's is underscores the considerably greater tolerance that indie voters have for Romney than they do for the more vocally partisan Perry.
As with other southern states, the most interesting dichotomy to examine in South Carolina is the chasm between white and African-American voters as it relates to the president's job approval. African-American voters offer up a lofty 86 percent job approval rating for the president. Among white residents of the Palmetto State, Obama's job approval craters to just 25 percent.
As a result, Obama does no better than 30 percent against any of the GOP hopefuls. As a practical matter, that performance with white voters renders it nearly impossible to envision a path to victory here, barring a putrid turnout here among white voters.
In addition, most of the undecided voters here are white voters, which would make it reasonable to conclude that the margins for the GOP here are probably low-balling it slightly. Not that Democrats were counting on flipping South Carolina and adding it to the Obama coalition, but the numbers here indicate the improbability of just such a scenario. That it is as close as it is underscores, yet again, how politically toxic several of the GOP's first tier have become.
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