Republicans: 0-3
Democrats came within a few points of winning back the state Senate. Meanwhile, Republicans, convinced there was public anger at Senate Democrats for leaving the state to deny Republicans quorum, were only able to get three Democrats on the recall ballot, and lost all three of those races by double digits.
Democrats also made significant gains with an electorate that abandoned them in 2010:
Democratic challengers gained in every single Republican district over Walker?s performance in 2010, averaging a 4% boost in each, and netting more than 25,000 votes statewide in districts carried comfortably by Walker in 2010.
Remember?these are white working-class districts in the "heartland." These aren't "coastal elites" or brown people, who the media discount as irrelevant. These are the people Democrats lost big time in 2010 leading to huge GOP pickups. A strong populist message brought huge numbers of them back. Greg Sargent:
[T]he headway made with the Dem/labor populist message in traditionally Republican districts ? and the national polls showing their message resonated with the broader public ? constitute real, meaningful ground gained. They will influence how both sides write their playbooks for 2012, particularly Democrats, in this key swing state and among other swing voters. As a dress rehearsal for 2012, Wisconsin will persuade national Dems not to refrain from sharp populist messaging.
Republicans are insisting that they still won, because they didn't lose as badly as they could've. And sure, we didn't take back the Wisconsin Senate. But if we continue to "lose" like this, winning 33 percent of Republican districts while holding our own, then Nancy Pelosi will get her gavel back with a 272-160 House majority.
It's not that simple, obviously. But here's the thing?look at the House popular vote the last two cycles (that is, the percentage of the sum total of all votes cast in House races in the U.S.):
Gallup's historical model suggests that a party needs at least a two-point advantage in the national House vote to win a majority of the 435 seats.
Republicans may be celebrating Wisconsin because they didn't lose by more. It's weird celebrating getting your ass only 2/3rds beaten. But if these trends hold (or accelerate, given the dramatically different presidential year turnout), then 2012 promises to deliver a ton of pain to the GOP.
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