bapifar01: Daily Kos Elections Afternoon Digest: 6/16

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The Senate section of this digest was written by Arjun Jaikumar. The Gubernatorial and California House sections were written by Steve Singiser.

Senate:

? CT-Sen: Dem Rep. Chris Murphy racks up his second statewide labor union endorsement in the last week from the Connecticut Laborers, which mostly represents construction workers and others in the building trades.

? IN-Sen: This is a bit stale, and a bit inside-baseball, but Indiana Treasurer Richard "Howling Mad" Mourdock's vaunted roster of GOP establishment supporters took a hit last week. Mourdock had previously posted a list of 10 Indiana Republican Central Committee members who were backing his attempt to teabag septuagenarian incumbent Dick Lugar; last Wednesday, seven of those 10 were defeated for reelection. Lugar's people deny any organized attempt to target Mourdock's people, of course.

? NJ-Sen: It's been a while since anyone checked in with biotech executive (and subject of a glorified made-for-TV movie) John Crowley, whose compelling personal story has made him a frequent target of GOP recruiting in the Garden State. Anyway, Crowley says he's still considering a run against Democratic Senator Bob Menendez.

? NV-Sen: The Mellman Group polled for the DSCC and finds Rep. Shelley Berkley beating incumbent GOPer Dean Heller by five, 42% to 37%. There are a lot of undecideds, and it's still very early, but obviously you'd rather be leading than trailing... and Mellman was pretty much the only pollster that got NV-Sen right in 2010, showing consistent leads for Handsome Harry Reid down the stretch even as many pollsters had him trailing.

? SC-Sen: After briefly teasing a possible presidential run in 2012, Jim DeMint says he's not interested... and though he didn't endorse, he spoke well of fellow crazypants Michele Bachmann. DeMint is kind of a big deal in tricornered-hat circles, so it could be a big get for Bachmann if he ever does offer his formal backing.

? UT-Sen: Professional right-wing firebreather Mark Levin has endorsed in the Utah Senate race, which isn't noteworthy on its own, except for the fact that he's backing Orrin Hatch, which is sort of interesting as Levin's not exactly from the establishment wing of elephantville.

Gubernatorial:

? CT-Gov, CT-Sen: Democratic Governor Dan Malloy takes a hit in the latest Quinnipiac poll, but before GOPers start thinking that buyers? remorse is bipartisan, check out the details. Yes, Malloy?s job approval is underwater (38/44), driven by dissatisfaction with the budget. What is voters' chief concern, though? 67% of respondents think the tax burden should be greater on those with higher incomes. Driving down Malloy?s numbers is an anemic 52% approval rating with his own party. Meanwhile, on the Senate side, Democrat Richard Blumenthal is still very well-liked with Nutmeggers (54/25), while lame-duck Joe Lieberman is still underwater, though his decision to leave the Senate is improving his standing (he?s up to 41/45).

? NC-Gov: When is an incumbent being down six points considered good news? When that incumbent used to be down 14 points. Indeed, the latest PPP poll in their home state of North Carolina shows Democratic Gov. Bev Perdue trailing Republican Pat McCrory by a 45-39 margin. Perdue trailed by more than double that amount in March. Perdue?s job approval numbers are still lousy (36%), but even that is an uptick of six points from three months ago.

House:

? CA-36: Disturbingly, there is a bit of a "drip, drip" emanating from the South Bay regarding next month?s special election runoff between Democratic nominee Janice Hahn and teabagger Craig Huey. Dave Catanese gets several Democrats expressing concerns about the race, though most are in the generic "special elections are unpredictable, and this dude has cash" vein. Smells like a little bit of a verbal warning against complacency more than anything.

Advocates for Huey probably helped that cause this week, by dropping what might be the vilest ad in recent campaign history. Even though Huey finally denounced the spot, it didn?t take long for the DCCC to fundraise off of it, with a goal of six figures raised from those outraged by the ham-handed buffet of sexism and racism offered by the third-party right-wing group "Turn Right USA."

? CA-East Ventura, CA-West San Fernando Valley-Calabasas: As one might have expected from a process free of official party direction, the new maps out of Cali could be inviting some serious Dem-on-Dem violence. The issue is that longtime Democratic Reps Howard Berman and Brad Sherman were both drawn into the same district in the western San Fernando Valley. In order to avoid a primary showdown, some are suggesting that one man move to an adjoining district. The problem: Sherman?s possible destination would be a tougher district (with a lot of Ventura County territory which he is unfamiliar with), while Berman?s possible destination would almost certainly invite a primary challenge from a Latino Dem. So, it has become a glorified game of political chicken, assuming that the independent panel doesn't magically make the problem disappear in further drafts.

? CA-South Orange County, CA-La Habra-Yorba Linda: Further south, the maps have created a game of musical chairs among Orange County Republicans. Faced with a more marginal district, veteran Orange County GOP Rep. Ed Royce is apparently letting his supporters know that he is heading south, running in a district that stretches from the Orange/Villa Park area into south OC. This leaves a more politically competitive north county seat (though it does include the deep-red suburb of Yorba Linda). Enter OC Supervisor Shawn Nelson (R), who is letting supporters know that he is a go for the newly-drawn district.

? IL-11, IL-03: Wealthy businessman John Atkinson has "suspended" his campaign and thrown his backing to fellow Democrat Bill Foster in the 11th CD. Atkinson had also been considering a primary challenge to Rep. Dan Lipinski in the 3rd, but given that he's shutting down operations, it certainly sounds like he's not going run there either.

? IN-02: Though Rep. Joe Donnelly is seeking bluer pastures with a statewide run now that the 2nd CD has been made more Republican, Jack Colwell of Howey Politics says that a couple of Dems are considering the race: Army vet Brendan Mullen (just 33 years old) and Mark Meissner, a former staffer to Rep. Tim Roemer and Sen. Evan Bayh. Meissner ran in the old 2nd once before (back in 2002) but got crushed in the primary by Jill Long Thompson, who went on to lose to Chris Chocola (the guy Donnelly eventually beat in 2006).

? WA-01, WA-10: Former Dem state Rep. Laura Ruderman said just a couple of weeks ago that she intended to run for either Rep. Jay Inslee's seat (if he runs for governor) or in the as-yet-undrawn 10th CD. Now she's formally filed paperwork with the FEC, and notably, she left the box for district number blank (PDF).

? WI-07: Let's just say Sean Duffy doesn't exactly run the tightest of ships. The freshman GOPer has already had quite a share of gaffes, debacles, and embarrassments (including one foot-in-mouth incident that is an all-time keeper), so what's one more, right? The newest installment is a takedown notice from a local TV station, which accused Duffy of "doctoring" some of their footage by adding misleading captions and posting it to YouTube. The video has since been flushed down the oubliette. Whoops!

Other Races:

? WI Recall: Based on new candidate filing information released by the GAB, there will be primaries in all of the recall elections targeting GOP state senators. This means, assuming the schedule does not change any further, that July 12 will be primary day and the general elections will all be held in August 9.

Redistricting Roundup:

? Louisiana: This seems unusual ? but then again, as you're tired of hearing me say, almost everything about the redistricting process nationwide has been unusual one way or another this year. Anyhow, "fallback" legislative plans are moving through the Louisiana House, just in case the Justice Department denies preclearance to the maps passed back in March. (Supposedly a decision could come Monday.) The new maps aren't any different from the old ones ? they're just serving as placeholders. Who knows how the DoJ will come down, but doesn't this seem a bit like an admission that there's a problem?

? Michigan: The Detroit News says that Michigan Republicans will release their redistricting proposals this Friday? is this a weekend news dump? The paper previously published an alleged GOP plan, which you can see at the link, but there's no word as to whether it resembles the actual forthcoming map.

? Texas: Like I said, redistricting sure has been weird. An empty Houston-area 300 acre plot with just 28 voters was briefly the center of a tug-of-war between proxies for GOP Reps. Ted Poe and Kevin Brady. Why the bizarro slap-fight over a barren strip of land? As Patricia Kilday Hart of the Houston Chronicle points out, it's the future home of Exxon's new headquarters, and both men were eager to see the oil giant entrench itself as their new corporate master. In the end, Brady was the lucky winner!