bapifar01: White House looks to McConnell for help, but McConnell backs Boehner

Wednesday, 27 July 2011

White House looks to McConnell for help, but McConnell backs Boehner

With debt negotiations locked in what President Obama last night referred to as a ?stalemate,? the president is looking to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Kentucky, for help.
Specifically, the president hopes McConnell will be able to persuade House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, to support legislation that will raise the debt ceiling and reduce the deficit ? and that can pass the House and Senate and be signed by the president.

?The key is McConnell,? a senior White House official tells ABC News.

I wouldn't bet on McConnell saving the day. The Republican base is still furious with him for essentially having offered to cave on the debt limit, and after the skewering he took from the right for his plan, I can't imagine he's going to be willing to take the lead in pushing Boehner away from the brink. Indeed, according to Tapper, McConnell is saying no:

Senate GOP sources say that the White House should likely look elsewhere.
McConnell worked with the Speaker on the Boehner bill and strongly supports it. The GOP leader believes that at the end of the day the choice will be between Boehner?s legislation and possible default, and the president will be forced to sign Boehner?s legislation, which would force $1.8 trillion in additional cuts in 2012.

Reid?s plan, Republicans say, not only couldn?t pass the House, it can?t sustain a filibuster in the Senate. [...] ?The only hiccup right now is whether the debt ceiling increase gets us through his (the president?s) election,? the GOP aide said. ?Not whether it helps the economy.?

Actually, the crucial difference between Reid's plan and Boehner's plan isn't how it affects President Obama's reelection campaign, it's that Boehner's plan would hold the debt limit hostage unless Congress approved $1.8 trillion in entitlement cuts to be proposed by a special committee by the end of the year.

Reid's plan creates a similar deficit reduction committee, but unlike the Boehner plan, it would address revenue as well as entitlements, it wouldn't be mandated to cut $1.8 trillion over the next ten years, and it wouldn't hold the debt ceiling hostage to whether or not Congress approved its plan.

But discussing the details of their two approaches misses the larger point here which is that Republicans do not believe they have any reason to back down on anything, and any strategy that depends on them behaving reasonably is doomed to fail (unless you consider capitulation success).

Mitch McConnell is only going to do the right thing if he feels compelled to do the right thing. And unless or until he becomes convinced that Democrats will not cave, he's not going to feel compelled.